Monday, February 11, 2008

Give or take a few votes.

As I sit in my room save from the cold, harsh temperatures outside in SD, I try to find comfort in my comfort zone, on my couch. I flip through channels while pittling around on my laptop, the brightest noise or loudest color grabbing all of my attention. It could be the Britney Spears most reccent accent, or monster trucks, but no, no its not. It's the idiots of the media, those idols of mine that I embraced so much as a journalist major. It seems every week there is a new front runner for the RNC and the DNC, Barraks back on top this week for the Dems. while Huckabee...haha...yes Mr. Huckabee is stealing McCains thunder.

Articles about how Obamas recent victories in Maine, Washington, Kansas and Lousiana have put Clinton in the corner, in dire need of victories apparently the pundits are saying she must win Texas and Ohio to stay in the race. This, this entire thing, is a popularity contest, they are only looking to who wins the most states, not which states they are winning. Winning Texas always looks good as it holds the second most electoral votes but also a very difficult state for democrats to win so you can not bank on that one giving Obama any help. Ohio could go either way, both candidates home state is only one state over so their influence could play equaly as strong.

Lets pretend Obama recieved the nod from the DNC. Those before mentioned wins (Maine,Washington,Kansas,Lousiana) add up to 29 electoral votes. But we can take out Kansas and Lousiana, Kanasa a republican stronghold and the biggest victims of Katrina, poor, black people living in the inner city of New Orleans. The biggest victims have not and might not return to Lousiana, leaving behind a large republican base for the Elephants to stampede through.

Now with all the states BO has won, and for fun we will give him Ohio, he has around 180 electoral votes to date. Then we go back and subtract the states we know he's not going to pull ( Idaho, Utah, North Dakota, and Alabama, Alaska) he loses around 70, brining him around 100. Clinton will not win those states either though, but she has won California in the primaries, and Flordia was being naughty and didn't have a primary, but did vote infavor of Clinton for show. Thats over 80, plus 84 others shes won, equals 164 and around 53 electoral votes have not been counted from states who have yet to hold primaries.

And after all that math, all that research all that bullshit. It doesn't matter because John McCain is going to win. I'm a John fan, John Edwards, but I am not an idiot. Democrats are running each other down, by election time McCain's just going to step in and push over the candidate.

I do hope I'm wrong!!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23119050/ Hilary down for the count?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Electoral state breakdown.

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